The Role of Government Expenditure and Economic Indicators in Mathematics Achievement: A Longitudinal Bayesian SEM Analysis of TIMSS in Jordan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.4451Keywords:
GDP, Govt expenditure, TIMSS achievement, Bayesian Structural Equation Model, JordanAbstract
In this study, 8th-grade performance records for the Trend International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) for the period between the years 1999 and 2023 was used as a secondary source of data. Investigating these trends requires long-term analysis, as substantial changes on the system level are rarely observed regarding student outcomes in short periods. The study is grounded in several theoretical perspectives, including Human Capital Theory, Socioeconomic Status and Educational Outcomes, Educational Policy and Reform Theory, and Systems Theory in Education. These perspectives provide a comprehensive lens through which the interplay between economic factors, educational policies, and student achievement can be analyzed. Bayesian Structural Equation Model (SEM) was implemented to adequately take care of the sampling estimation Employing item response theory, we perform a concurrent calibration of item parameters was perform to link the eight studies onto a common scale spanning the period from 2019 to 2024 using data from empirical research. The results from the analysis yielded a strong association between Wage_and_Salaried_Workers and GDP. The regression loading of Wage_and_Salaried_Workers on its latent variable was estimated at 3.351 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.330, indicating a robust and highly significant association. However, the estimated covariances between the latent variable associated with economic factors (GDP and wage_and_salaried_workers) and other endogenous variables like Gov_Exp_Secondary and TIMSS_Achievement were notably low (Estimates of -0.008 and -0.277 respectively). These findings imply that while each construct significantly impacts its respective domain, their interactions are limited, indicating potential independence in their effects within the model structure. Overall, TIMSS results shows that the quality of education in Jordan is relatively low compared to the international landscape.
References
Ababneh, A., et al. (2014). Mapping of Student Assessments in Jordan.
Al-Khadra, W., et al. (2022). Innovation and New Directions: Searching for Novel Paths in Arab Education Reform, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Al-Mutawa, F., et al. (2021). "Kuwaiti students’ achievements in mathematics: findings from the TIMSS assessments: reality and reasons." Sage Open 11(3): 21582440211031903.
Al Helih, M. M. and Y. A. Nasereddin (2019). "A roadmap for improving e-learning in jordan and ensuring the quality of its outputs." International journal of management 10(3): 1078-1086.
Al Shabibi, A. S. and H. Silvennoinen (2018). "Challenges in Education System Affecting Teacher Professional Development in Oman." Athens Journal of Education 5(3): 261-282.
Almuhur, E. (2023). "Effective Teaching Strategies for Integrating ESD into STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) in Jordanian Curricula." TWIST 18(4): 170-178.
Badran, A., et al. (2022). Higher Education in the Arab World, Springer.
Bdeir, R. (2019). Investigating the progress of Dubai private schools’ PISA and TIMSS results and school inspection reports from 2011 to 2018, The British University in Dubai.
Dagher, A. K. (2020). "Reengineering Model for the Education System to Improve the Academic Achievement of Students in Jordanian Schools." Journal of Education and Practice 11(21): 117-138.
Fishbein, B., Martin, M. O., Mullis, I. V., & Foy, P. (2018). "The TIMSS 2019 item equivalence study: Examining mode effects for computer-based assessment and implications for measuring trends." Large-Scale Assessments in Education 6(1): 23.
Koršňáková, P. and S. Dohr (2022). "Context and Implementation of TIMSS 2019 at Grade Four in the Dinaric Region." Dinaric Perspectives on TIMSS 2019: Teaching and Learning Mathematics and Science in South-Eastern Europe: 15-38.
Martin, M. O., et al. (2020). "Methods and Procedures: TIMSS 2019 Technical Report." International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.
Mondiale, B. (2008). "The road not traveled: Education reform in the Middle East and North Africa."
Morgan, C. and A. Ibrahim (2020). "Configuring the low performing user: PISA, TIMSS and the United Arab Emirates." Journal of Education Policy 35(6): 812-835.
Mullis, I. and M. Martin (2012). "Using TIMSS and PIRLS to improve teaching and learning." Recherches en éducation 14.
Mullis, I. V., et al. (2004). TIMSS 2003 International Mathematics Report: Findings from IEA's Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study at the Fourth and Eighth Grades, ERIC.
Nilsen, T., et al. (2022). "Trend analyses of TIMSS 2015 and 2019: school factors related to declining performance in mathematics." Large-Scale Assessments in Education 10(1): 15.
Nusir, S., et al. (2012). "Studying the Impact of Using Multimedia Interactive Programs at Children Ability to Learn Basic Math Skills." Acta Didactica Napocensia 5(2): 17-32.
Patnam, V. S. (2013). Factors related to student achievement in mathematics and comparison of the US with other countries: A study based on TIMSS 2007 report, George Mason University.
Rabab’h, B. S. H. (2015). Mathematics Learning Strategy and Mathematics Achievement among Middle School Students in North of Jordan, Doctoral Dissertation, Kedah: Universiti Utara Malaysia.
Rasheed, M. A. (2023). Education as an instrument of progress in the Arab gulf states. The Impact of Oil Revenues on Arab Gulf Development, Routledge: 170-184.
Rondinelli, D. A., et al. (1998). "The changing forces of urban economic development: Globalization and city competitiveness in the 21st century." Cityscape: 71-105.
Sabah, S. and H. Hammouri (2010). "Does subject matter matter? Estimating the impact of instructional practices and resources on student achievement in science and mathematics: Findings from TIMSS 2007." Evaluation & Research in Education 23(4): 287-299.
Sabbagh, R. R. (2023). Trends in International Mathematics Study Results for Lebanon, Saint Louis University.
Steer, L., et al. (2014). "Arab youth: Missing educational foundations for a productive life." The Center for Education at the Brookings Institution: Washington, DC, USA 16.
Wardat, Y., et al. (2022). "Mathematics teachers’ perceptions of trends in international mathematics and science study (TIMSS)-related practices in Abu Dhabi Emirate schools." Sustainability 14(9): 5436.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 International Journal of Computational and Experimental Science and Engineering
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
